Machine learning for early prediction in medicine has recently shown breakthrough performance, however, the focus on improving prediction accuracy has led to a neglect of faithful explanations that are required to gain the trust of medical practitioners. The goal of this paper is to teach LLMs to follow medical consensus guidelines step-by-step in their reasoning and prediction process. Since consensus guidelines are ubiquitous in medicine, instantiations of verbalized medical inference rules to electronic health records provide data for fine-tuning LLMs to learn consensus rules and possible exceptions thereof for many medical areas. Consensus rules also enable an automatic evaluation of the model's inference process regarding its derivation correctness (evaluating correct and faithful deduction of a conclusion from given premises) and value correctness (comparing predicted values against real-world measurements). We exemplify our work using the complex Sepsis-3 consensus definition. Our experiments show that small fine-tuned models outperform one-shot learning of considerably larger LLMs that are prompted with the explicit definition and models that are trained on medical texts including consensus definitions. Since fine-tuning on verbalized rule instantiations of a specific medical area yields nearly perfect derivation correctness for rules (and exceptions) on unseen patient data in that area, the bottleneck for early prediction is not out-of-distribution generalization, but the orthogonal problem of generalization into the future by forecasting sparsely and irregularly sampled clinical variables. We show that the latter results can be improved by integrating the output representations of a time series forecasting model with the LLM in a multimodal setup.

Accurate rainfall forecasting, particularly for extreme events, remains a significant challenge in climatology and the Earth system. This paper presents novel physics-informed Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) combined with extreme-value analysis techniques to improve gauge-station rainfall predictions across Thailand. The model leverages a graph-structured representation of gauge stations to capture complex spatiotemporal patterns, and it offers explainability through teleconnections. We preprocess relevant climate indices that potentially influence regional rainfall. The proposed Graph Attention Network with Long Short-Term Memory (Attention-LSTM) applies the attention mechanism using initial edge features derived from simple orographic-precipitation physics formulation. The embeddings are subsequently processed by LSTM layers. To address extremes, we perform Peak-Over-Threshold (POT) mapping using the novel Spatial Season-aware Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) method, which overcomes limitations of traditional machine-learning models. Experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms well-established baselines across most regions, including areas prone to extremes, and remains strongly competitive with the state of the art. Compared with the operational forecasting system SEAS5, our real-world application improves extreme-event prediction and offers a practical enhancement to produce high-resolution maps that support decision-making in long-term water management.

Iterative RAG for multi-hop question answering faces challenges with lengthy contexts and the buildup of irrelevant information. This hinders a model's capacity to process and reason over retrieved content and limits performance. While recent methods focus on compressing retrieved information, they are either restricted to single-round RAG, require finetuning or lack scalability in iterative RAG. To address these challenges, we propose Notes Writing, a method that generates concise and relevant notes from retrieved documents at each step, thereby reducing noise and retaining only essential information. This indirectly increases the effective context length of Large Language Models (LLMs), enabling them to reason and plan more effectively while processing larger volumes of input text. Notes Writing is framework agnostic and can be integrated with different iterative RAG methods. We demonstrate its effectiveness with three iterative RAG methods, across two models and four evaluation datasets. Notes writing yields an average improvement of 15.6 percentage points overall, with minimal increase in output tokens.

Forecasting sea surface currents is essential for applications such as maritime navigation, environmental monitoring, and climate analysis, particularly in regions like the Gulf of Thailand and the Andaman Sea. This paper introduces SEA-ViT, an advanced deep learning model that integrates Vision Transformer (ViT) with bidirectional Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs) to capture spatio-temporal covariance for predicting sea surface currents (U, V) using high-frequency radar (HF) data. The name SEA-ViT is derived from ``Sea Surface Currents Forecasting using Vision Transformer,'' highlighting the model's emphasis on ocean dynamics and its use of the ViT architecture to enhance forecasting capabilities. SEA-ViT is designed to unravel complex dependencies by leveraging a rich dataset spanning over 30 years and incorporating ENSO indices (El Ni\~no, La Ni\~na, and neutral phases) to address the intricate relationship between geographic coordinates and climatic variations. This development enhances the predictive capabilities for sea surface currents, supporting the efforts of the Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency (GISTDA) in Thailand's maritime regions. The code and pretrained models are available at \url{https://github.com/kaopanboonyuen/gistda-ai-sea-surface-currents}.

Estimating the location and intensity of tropical cyclones holds crucial significance for predicting catastrophic weather events. In this study, we approach this task as a detection and regression challenge, specifically over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) region where best tracks location and wind speed information serve as the labels. The current process for cyclone detection and intensity estimation involves physics-based simulation studies which are time-consuming, only using image features will automate the process for significantly faster and more accurate predictions. While conventional methods typically necessitate substantial prior knowledge for training, we are exploring alternative approaches to enhance efficiency. This research aims to focus specifically on cyclone detection, intensity estimation and related aspects using only image input and data-driven approaches and will lead to faster inference time and automate the process as opposed to current NWP models being utilized at SAC. In context to algorithm development, a novel two stage detection and intensity estimation module is proposed. In the first level detection we try to localize the cyclone over an entire image as captured by INSAT3D over the NIO (North Indian Ocean). For the intensity estimation task, we propose a CNN-LSTM network, which works on the cyclone centered images, utilizing a ResNet-18 backbone, by which we are able to capture both temporal and spatial characteristics.

The Chinese military recently unveiled a new kind of battle buddy for its soldiers: a "robot dog" with a machine gun strapped to its back. In video distributed by the state-run news agency CCTV, People's Liberation Army personnel are shown operating on a testing range alongside a four-legged robot with what appears to be a variant of the standard-issue 5.8 x 42-mm QBZ-95 assault rifle mounted on it as part of China's recent Golden Dragon 24 joint military exercises with Cambodia in the Gulf of Thailand. In one scenario, Chinese soldiers stand on either side of a doorway while the robot dog enters the building ahead of them; in another, the robot fires off a burst of bullets as it advances on a target. "It can serve as a new member in our urban combat operations, replacing our members to conduct reconnaissance and identify enemy [sic] and strike the target during our training," one Chinese soldier shown operating the robot told CCTV. This isn't the first time the Chinese military-industrial complex has shown off an armed robot dog. In October 2022, Chinese defense company Kestrel Defense published a video showing an unmanned aerial vehicle air-dropping a quadrupedal ground vehicle affixed with a 5.8 x 42-mm QBB-97 light machine gun on a roof during an urban warfare experiment.

Despite the existence of various benchmarks for evaluating natural language processing models, we argue that human exams are a more suitable means of evaluating general intelligence for large language models (LLMs), as they inherently demand a much wider range of abilities such as language understanding, domain knowledge, and problem-solving skills. To this end, we introduce M3Exam, a novel benchmark sourced from real and official human exam questions for evaluating LLMs in a multilingual, multimodal, and multilevel context. M3Exam exhibits three unique characteristics: (1) multilingualism, encompassing questions from multiple countries that require strong multilingual proficiency and cultural knowledge; (2) multimodality, accounting for the multimodal nature of many exam questions to test the model's multimodal understanding capability; and (3) multilevel structure, featuring exams from three critical educational periods to comprehensively assess a model's proficiency at different levels. In total, M3Exam contains 12,317 questions in 9 diverse languages with three educational levels, where about 23\% of the questions require processing images for successful solving. We assess the performance of top-performing LLMs on M3Exam and find that current models, including GPT-4, still struggle with multilingual text, particularly in low-resource and non-Latin script languages. Multimodal LLMs also perform poorly with complex multimodal questions. We believe that M3Exam can be a valuable resource for comprehensively evaluating LLMs by examining their multilingual and multimodal abilities and tracking their development. Data and evaluation code is available at \url{https://github.com/DAMO-NLP-SG/M3Exam}.

Representation learning has proven to be a powerful methodology in a wide variety of machine learning applications. For atmospheric dynamics, however, it has so far not been considered, arguably due to the lack of large-scale, labeled datasets that could be used for training. In this work, we show that the difficulty is benign and introduce a self-supervised learning task that defines a categorical loss for a wide variety of unlabeled atmospheric datasets. Specifically, we train a neural network on the simple yet intricate task of predicting the temporal distance between atmospheric fields from distinct but nearby times. We demonstrate that training with this task on ERA5 reanalysis leads to internal representations capturing intrinsic aspects of atmospheric dynamics. We do so by introducing a data-driven distance metric for atmospheric states. When employed as a loss function in other machine learning applications, this Atmodist distance leads to improved results compared to the classical $\ell_2$-loss. For example, for downscaling one obtains higher resolution fields that match the true statistics more closely than previous approaches and for the interpolation of missing or occluded data the AtmoDist distance leads to results that contain more realistic fine scale features. Since it is derived from observational data, AtmoDist also provides a novel perspective on atmospheric predictability.